# Weather Ensemble

> Twelve weather models compared for one coordinate, hour by hour. You get the spread and the agreement, not one model opinion. Pay per call in USDC over x402. No signup, no API key, no dashboard.

## Why this exists

Any single model forecast is free and everywhere. What no free endpoint gives you is how far the models
disagree, and that is the number a planning agent actually needs. A 21 °C median with the models within
0.4 K of each other is a decision. The same 21 °C with a 6 K spread is a coin flip. This API returns both.

## What one call returns

- Per hour and per variable: median, p15/p85 band, min, max, spread and how many models still carry that hour.
- An agreement score from 0 to 100 over the whole horizon and per day, built on the mean p85-p15 temperature band.
- Rain probability from pooled ensemble members (up to 111 runs), not from one deterministic model.
- A frost read: air frost, ground frost by the +4 °C proxy, and how much of the ensemble backs it.
- The official DWD warnings in force for the point, each with effective, onset, expires and whether it is active now.
- Named sources: every model with its operating weather service and grid resolution.

## Endpoints

- POST https://ensemble.netzhandwerker.de/ensemble — 0.005 USDC — Compare every major weather model hour by hour and return spread, model agreement and ensemble rain probability instead of one model opinion.
- POST https://ensemble.netzhandwerker.de/warnungen — 0.005 USDC — Official DWD severe weather warnings in force for one point in Germany, each with its validity window.

## Parameters for POST /ensemble

- lat, lon — required, decimal degrees.
- hours — 1 to 168, default 24.
- variables — up to 8 of: temperature_2m, apparent_temperature, dew_point_2m, relative_humidity_2m, precipitation, snowfall, cloud_cover, wind_speed_10m, wind_gusts_10m, surface_pressure, pressure_msl, shortwave_radiation, cape, wind_direction_10m, weather_code.
- models — subset of the twelve, at least two.
- timezone — IANA zone name, default UTC.

## The models

- icon_d2 — ICON-D2, Deutscher Wetterdienst (DE), 2 km
- icon_eu — ICON-EU, Deutscher Wetterdienst (DE), 7 km
- knmi_harmonie_arome_netherlands — HARMONIE-AROME, KNMI (NL), 2 km
- dmi_seamless — HARMONIE-DK, DMI (DK), 2 km
- meteofrance_seamless — AROME / ARPEGE, Météo-France (FR), 1–11 km
- ukmo_seamless — UKMO Unified Model, UK Met Office (GB), 10 km
- ecmwf_ifs025 — IFS, ECMWF (EU), 25 km
- ecmwf_aifs025_single — AIFS (machine learning), ECMWF (EU), 25 km
- gfs_seamless — GFS, NOAA (US), 13 km
- gem_seamless — GEM, Environment Canada (CA), 15 km
- jma_seamless — GSM / MSM, Japan Meteorological Agency (JP), 20 km
- cma_grapes_global — GRAPES, China Meteorological Administration (CN), 15 km

## Who buys this

Energy agents pricing dispatch and curtailment risk, logistics agents deciding whether a route holds,
agriculture agents timing spraying, irrigation and frost protection. All three need the confidence,
not just the value.

## Discovery without payment

- https://ensemble.netzhandwerker.de/openapi.json
- https://ensemble.netzhandwerker.de/.well-known/x402
- https://ensemble.netzhandwerker.de/mcp (Model Context Protocol, tools/list needs no payment)
- https://ensemble.netzhandwerker.de/models
- https://ensemble.netzhandwerker.de/pricing
- https://ensemble.netzhandwerker.de/health

## Rules we follow

- A forecast is cached 10 minutes per location and parameter set, warnings 5 minutes. The model runs update slower than that.
- An upstream failure is refused before settlement, so a failure is never charged.
- Warnings are passed through from the DWD unedited. We do not issue warnings ourselves.
- Every source in an answer is named, with the operating weather service and the licence.

## Operator

Die Netzhandwerker, IT-Manufaktur für Digitales und Sensorik. https://netzhandwerker.de